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I observe a certain pattern: when oil price and the stocks of oil companies are at their maximum values, it is advisable to be more cautious in assessments regarding further growth of financial markets in general.

Usually, a high oil price serves as an indicator of a potential correction or even a decline in the stock market in the near future.

This happened in 1997-1998, and it happened again in 2008.

No one guarantees a mirror repetition of the situation at present, but a little caution wouldn’t hurt.

In «Squid Game», one of the main characters is a trader in commodities futures. Picture this: he’s at this big South Korean bank, and bam, major wealth losses hit his trading gig.

Now, these things—commodity and index futures, plus options on futures—are like walking on a financial tightrope, especially if you’re not a pro. They come with crazy 50-100 times leverage. Translation? A tiny 3-5% move against your big bet can wipe you clean.

When it comes to your hard-earned cash and your family’s wealth, be super cautious when someone pitches you these high-stakes opportunities in futures markets, be it a «sure» bet that oil is going triple digits, or bitcoin «to the moon». It’s like playing with fire.

Understanding the risks is key for everybody, and especially for high net worth individuals and their family offices who do have lots to lose.